Here’s a quick one, based largely on a true story.
Imagine two software development teams, each given the same set of requirements by the same customer. They’re not competing with each other…they are in parallel universes, placed solely for the purposes of this story.
The first team looks at the requirements and comes up with an estimate that they are all comfortable with. They don’t spend much time on the estimate because they know the “magic number” the customer is looking for and they convince themselves that they can deliver in just under that number. Let’s say it’s six months.
The second team has an estimating process that they have honed over years of experience. They ask some clarifying questions and they document some assumptions. They plug in the variables to account for the project’s technical complexity, its volume, and the culture of the customer. They come up with an estimate of ten months.
They both deliver the exact same product–same quality, same functionality, same everything–in ten months.
The first team’s effort is considered a failure, and most of the team is demoralized and ready to quit IT altogether.
The second team is hailed as heroes and the phone is ringing off the hook from the customer’s referrals to friends.
The moral of the story: never underestimate the importance of estimating.
